Australian PM Kevin Rudd absolutely loves writing essays!
That shouldn't come as a surprise cos you know he has first class honours in Bachelor of Arts. What is surprising is he actually wrote 6100 words, and the article took up two full pages of yesterday's Sydney Morning Herald.
I only read it this morning, and it did take me a while because of its length.
Putting aside all the sophistication of words and long elaborations, there are really only a few points that can be said in much fewer words:
(From my memory)
1. Australian economy is doing better than most of the other rich countries, due to aggressive fiscal and monetary expansionary policies. It is not in technical recession yet.
2. There are signs of recovery, but the recovery process is going to be painful for households as the government gradually withdraw the stimulus packages to undo its budget deficit.
3. Unemployment is expected to soar higher as it is a lagging economic indicator. Even if growth levels rebounce in the second half of 2009 unemployment might well increase further to around 8-9%.
4. The recovery is expected to be slow and full recovery might take up to 6 years. The 14-year economic boom before the crisis was based on 'spending beyond our means' and 'debt growth', the recovery ahead will be based on 'capacity and productivity building'.
5. As the economy recovers, inflation and interest rates are going to rise. Households may experience strains in purchasing power as unemployment continues to increase.
Kevin Rudd made a smart political move. He wrote a long essay justifying what his government will do in future: reduce government spending, increase tax, increase cash rate etc. That means when the opposition criticises his government's move in future he can always reply by saying, "Please read the 6100-word essay I wrote."
If you think about it economics is such a unique field. It doesn't have right or wrong answers, but only valid arguments. Economic projections are more likely to be wrong than right but somehow the world take all these forecast very seriously. And (lol) there are usually ways for economists to explain why the past forecasts are inaccurate (wisedom in hindsight?).
It may seem simple, that in bad times you should increase budget spending and reduce interest rate. But the question is WHEN is the best time to carry out an action. Also consumer sentiment is such a tricky issue that it seems to me the economists speaking on TV are making nothing more than educated guesses.
When I was first introduced to economics (in college) I was wondering why can't we AVOID the economic cycle. Back then all I know is that there are four phases and that the cycle repeats itself over and over again. I thought if everyone were to stay optimistic all the time everything will be fine, there will not be recesssion.
It's human nature to never be satisfied and want more and more of everything we have. Eventually resources will be so strained and some people will start to lose confidence, and thus the downturn begins.
So the essence is unless we turn ourselves into robots economic ups and downs will continue.
P/S: If you aspire to become a Prime Minister one day you might wish to start learning Economics.
Sunday, 26 July 2009
Sunday, 19 July 2009
Lessons from Australian Master Chef Season 1
Lesson #1: Sometimes champion is made by not being the best (but not the worst) all along except for the last race.
Lesson #2: The most common way to screw up something is to have BAD time-management. Remember how Julie screwed up many of her dishes?e.g. the puddle pie
Lesson #3: Stress-management is usually what separates the best from the good.
Lesson #4: If you want to do well in something, you've gotta LOVE it~
Lesson #5: Don't take unnecessary risk i.e. risk that has no potential upside but with a downside possibility. Poh, you should have followed the recipe!
Lesson #6: Luck can sometimes change the way things go. Had Julie been not so lucky about onions being in that Garry-beef-something dish she could have got only 3 points from the taste test.
Lesson #7: Sometimes obvious answers are right in front of us, so don't search around for complicated solution before thinking over the easier possibilities. E.g. the carrots and tomatoes should really be quite obvious in the first challenge. Even I can spot that hint of tomato skin! And oh Poh, how can you forget about oil??
Lesson #8: Impression does matter. No matter how much you hate to admit it, humans being humans are bound to be led by emotions to some extent. What made Julie stayed for the finale instead of Chris? Her idea of the cook book which to me was very touching, and I have to say she knows how to engage her audience when she talks.
Lesson #9: Never think you are the best when the competition is not over. Chris thought he was the best in the competition, but see what happened?
Lesson #10: Most importantly, success is not determined by fragmented pieces of life chapters. It should be on-going. Julie won, but is that it? Nope, the real contest has only just begun! Poh lost today, but is she forever a loser to Julie? Nope, she could be the real winner if she works hard and prove to the world that her dishes sell better, or her restaurant gets more business than Julie's. One thing Julie has to justify for the rest of her life is that she is a worthy winner of the first season of Australian Master Chef.
Lesson #2: The most common way to screw up something is to have BAD time-management. Remember how Julie screwed up many of her dishes?e.g. the puddle pie
Lesson #3: Stress-management is usually what separates the best from the good.
Lesson #4: If you want to do well in something, you've gotta LOVE it~
Lesson #5: Don't take unnecessary risk i.e. risk that has no potential upside but with a downside possibility. Poh, you should have followed the recipe!
Lesson #6: Luck can sometimes change the way things go. Had Julie been not so lucky about onions being in that Garry-beef-something dish she could have got only 3 points from the taste test.
Lesson #7: Sometimes obvious answers are right in front of us, so don't search around for complicated solution before thinking over the easier possibilities. E.g. the carrots and tomatoes should really be quite obvious in the first challenge. Even I can spot that hint of tomato skin! And oh Poh, how can you forget about oil??
Lesson #8: Impression does matter. No matter how much you hate to admit it, humans being humans are bound to be led by emotions to some extent. What made Julie stayed for the finale instead of Chris? Her idea of the cook book which to me was very touching, and I have to say she knows how to engage her audience when she talks.
Lesson #9: Never think you are the best when the competition is not over. Chris thought he was the best in the competition, but see what happened?
Lesson #10: Most importantly, success is not determined by fragmented pieces of life chapters. It should be on-going. Julie won, but is that it? Nope, the real contest has only just begun! Poh lost today, but is she forever a loser to Julie? Nope, she could be the real winner if she works hard and prove to the world that her dishes sell better, or her restaurant gets more business than Julie's. One thing Julie has to justify for the rest of her life is that she is a worthy winner of the first season of Australian Master Chef.
Tuesday, 14 July 2009
All in the name of corporate social responsibility
If you ask me which item on McDonald's appeals to me the most, at least in Australia, my answer will be Granny Smith Apple Pie!
As I was happily munching my superbly hot apple pies around 10-ish this morning, I saw this on the paper bag.
Then I went oh~
Indeed I kept the bag because my curiosity told me to do so.
And I did check out the website. It is kinda cool!
I once heard about how a burger that is sold to us for $5 actually only costs McD $1. At least McD cares to channel a bit of its profit back to the community. *clap clap clap*
As I was happily munching my superbly hot apple pies around 10-ish this morning, I saw this on the paper bag.
Then I went oh~
Indeed I kept the bag because my curiosity told me to do so.
And I did check out the website. It is kinda cool!
I once heard about how a burger that is sold to us for $5 actually only costs McD $1. At least McD cares to channel a bit of its profit back to the community. *clap clap clap*
Monday, 13 July 2009
覺得“天才”的definition好像被結構化
世人對genius的定義好像都環繞在幾個領域。
我自己最常耳聞目睹的定義是：年級小小就數學很棒的人。
信手沾來的幾個例子就有已故張世明，在Malaysia紅一陣子，5嵗就會做form 5 add math 的Adi Putra, 為Macquarie uni 創下後人可能沒辦法破的紀錄的無敵Actuarial student Weihao Choo, 再來Luke Nichols也算其中一個，還有那個不知道叫什麽名年級小小就被Malaysian government送去UK的馬來女生 etc
他們都有一個很明顯的共同點，就是他們年級小數學造詣卻希伯高。我常常在想這些人的腦到底是怎樣的？是不是一聼完課，或者看數學課本看一遍就*燈泡亮一下*懂了？不用教, 給一兩個example他們就奇跡般地。。。會了！是不是這樣告訴我！
很奇怪的是學術界的genius幹嗎都一定（或者99%）是數學希伯厲害？爲什麽不會有e.g. 語言掌控得很好的小孩被封為天才？就算那些spelling很厲害，厲害到去參加spelling bee competition的人好像也沒被封為天才？爲什麽榮獲國際各類常識比賽冠軍的小孩不被說成天才？
可能數學在人類發展的腳步中的地位是其他領域 如語言、人文地理無法匹敵的。
除了Academic genius另外三种人也有機會被封天才：
1。年紀輕輕運動造詣卻很高的人。這種人通常5，6嵗就被送去運動學校，企圖把他們訓練成未來的olympic gold medalist. 由於花太多時間在訓練上這些人通常學業不太好。e.g. England football squad的Wayne Rooney。
2。童星, aka有機會在娛樂圈大紅大紫的小孩。經典例子：Michael Jackson.
3。音樂細胞很多的小孩。這種人也跟1一樣，年紀輕輕可能就被送到有名的音樂學校e.g.英國的Royal School of Music，從小就接受很嚴格的音樂訓練。經典音樂才子：Mozart。
不過奇怪的是以上這三种“天才，1 和3的知名度往往比不上學術界的數學天才。運動天才最多在重大賽事 e.g.Olympic games, World Cup時才會受到關注，音樂天才更不用說了，只有懂音樂的人才會為之驚艷。只有童星才能跟math prodigy 拼。
童星會紅是因爲他/她的表演、影片、唱片人人都聼人人都看，而math prodigy的名聲一般都是這樣建立的：x嵗完成小學，y年内念完高中，在高中大考考或z個A (或者A1, 或者某某top score), w嵗考進世界排名第k的p大學的h科 系（注意！ h 通常都跟數學有關係，絕對不會是Bachelor of Arts, 也絕對不可能是商業成分太高的如Accounting，更不會是阿貓阿狗都念得起的科系)，m年内完成學士， n 年内完成碩士and/or博士。
突發意想：爲什麽沒有年級小小卻打poker或麻將一流的人被封天才？
如果你在想爲什麽我會打這篇文。。。本小姐在等oven 裏的雞肉烤熟，自娛娛人罷了。
我自己最常耳聞目睹的定義是：年級小小就數學很棒的人。
信手沾來的幾個例子就有已故張世明，在Malaysia紅一陣子，5嵗就會做form 5 add math 的Adi Putra, 為Macquarie uni 創下後人可能沒辦法破的紀錄的無敵Actuarial student Weihao Choo, 再來Luke Nichols也算其中一個，還有那個不知道叫什麽名年級小小就被Malaysian government送去UK的馬來女生 etc
他們都有一個很明顯的共同點，就是他們年級小數學造詣卻希伯高。我常常在想這些人的腦到底是怎樣的？是不是一聼完課，或者看數學課本看一遍就*燈泡亮一下*懂了？不用教, 給一兩個example他們就奇跡般地。。。會了！是不是這樣告訴我！
很奇怪的是學術界的genius幹嗎都一定（或者99%）是數學希伯厲害？爲什麽不會有e.g. 語言掌控得很好的小孩被封為天才？就算那些spelling很厲害，厲害到去參加spelling bee competition的人好像也沒被封為天才？爲什麽榮獲國際各類常識比賽冠軍的小孩不被說成天才？
可能數學在人類發展的腳步中的地位是其他領域 如語言、人文地理無法匹敵的。
除了Academic genius另外三种人也有機會被封天才：
1。年紀輕輕運動造詣卻很高的人。這種人通常5，6嵗就被送去運動學校，企圖把他們訓練成未來的olympic gold medalist. 由於花太多時間在訓練上這些人通常學業不太好。e.g. England football squad的Wayne Rooney。
2。童星, aka有機會在娛樂圈大紅大紫的小孩。經典例子：Michael Jackson.
3。音樂細胞很多的小孩。這種人也跟1一樣，年紀輕輕可能就被送到有名的音樂學校e.g.英國的Royal School of Music，從小就接受很嚴格的音樂訓練。經典音樂才子：Mozart。
不過奇怪的是以上這三种“天才，1 和3的知名度往往比不上學術界的數學天才。運動天才最多在重大賽事 e.g.Olympic games, World Cup時才會受到關注，音樂天才更不用說了，只有懂音樂的人才會為之驚艷。只有童星才能跟math prodigy 拼。
童星會紅是因爲他/她的表演、影片、唱片人人都聼人人都看，而math prodigy的名聲一般都是這樣建立的：x嵗完成小學，y年内念完高中，在高中大考考或z個A (或者A1, 或者某某top score), w嵗考進世界排名第k的p大學的h科 系（注意！ h 通常都跟數學有關係，絕對不會是Bachelor of Arts, 也絕對不可能是商業成分太高的如Accounting，更不會是阿貓阿狗都念得起的科系)，m年内完成學士， n 年内完成碩士and/or博士。
突發意想：爲什麽沒有年級小小卻打poker或麻將一流的人被封天才？
如果你在想爲什麽我會打這篇文。。。本小姐在等oven 裏的雞肉烤熟，自娛娛人罷了。
Sunday, 12 July 2009
吃飽太空閒之My attempt to understand the science behind "Stress"
A casual conversation with a friend stirred up my interest to read up on yet another random topic through google search.
Well it isn't that random aye? University students say they are under 'pressure' to keep up with their lecture materials; working adults say they are constantly rushing for deadlines; even full-time mothers complain about how 'stressful' it is to take care of young children, send them to school and return home only be greeted by housework that never seem to end.
I hated Biology in high school, that's why I didn't take up my dad's suggestion to pursue a medical degree. Yet, I surprised myself by my renewed interest in reading stuff about Biology, though I suspect the main reason being its relevance to me (and so many other university students).
It seems strange to me at first how stress can kill. It is untouchable, and its existence is sometimes difficult to define. Unlike a bullet which can go through a person's head and condemn him/her to instant death, stress does not have any physical sense of existence, yet depression is the number 1 cause of 'disability' in the population of Victoria.
My amateurish attempt at understanding some medical journals I found online led to a simplistic explanation. What we termed as 'stress' is actually a natural reaction to "dangerous" or "potentially life-threatening" situations, in the context of simple animal survival. Such reaction isn't supposed to be prolonged ie animals either escape from danger or die, in either case the body response to heightened level of anxiety will not last for a long time.
However, human extended existence beyond what nature lays down for us as well as our sophisticated brain structure which makes us 'aware' of our environment make us, I believe, more prone to stress than the wild animals whose only concern is 'survival'. Human invented responsibilities, commitments, love, care, duty - all contribute to different, and in some ways, more intense, level of 'stress' compared with the natural sources which are limited to predators, change in living environment and climate.
My poor grasp of Biology terms did not allow me to comprehend exactly the workings of our body's response to stress. I believe it is some sort of hormonal reaction, in that under stressful situations our body release some hormones to help us cope with the 'external danger'; however if the level of such hormones stays high for too long our immune system will start to deteriorate and this makes us more prone to illnesses.
So it is like alcohol. If it stays in your blood stream ALL THE TIME, you die of toxic.
It is akin to AIDS, which weakens your immunity and let other viruses kill you.
It is like some cancer. You can only try to manage it but not get rid of it completely.
Well it isn't that random aye? University students say they are under 'pressure' to keep up with their lecture materials; working adults say they are constantly rushing for deadlines; even full-time mothers complain about how 'stressful' it is to take care of young children, send them to school and return home only be greeted by housework that never seem to end.
I hated Biology in high school, that's why I didn't take up my dad's suggestion to pursue a medical degree. Yet, I surprised myself by my renewed interest in reading stuff about Biology, though I suspect the main reason being its relevance to me (and so many other university students).
It seems strange to me at first how stress can kill. It is untouchable, and its existence is sometimes difficult to define. Unlike a bullet which can go through a person's head and condemn him/her to instant death, stress does not have any physical sense of existence, yet depression is the number 1 cause of 'disability' in the population of Victoria.
My amateurish attempt at understanding some medical journals I found online led to a simplistic explanation. What we termed as 'stress' is actually a natural reaction to "dangerous" or "potentially life-threatening" situations, in the context of simple animal survival. Such reaction isn't supposed to be prolonged ie animals either escape from danger or die, in either case the body response to heightened level of anxiety will not last for a long time.
However, human extended existence beyond what nature lays down for us as well as our sophisticated brain structure which makes us 'aware' of our environment make us, I believe, more prone to stress than the wild animals whose only concern is 'survival'. Human invented responsibilities, commitments, love, care, duty - all contribute to different, and in some ways, more intense, level of 'stress' compared with the natural sources which are limited to predators, change in living environment and climate.
My poor grasp of Biology terms did not allow me to comprehend exactly the workings of our body's response to stress. I believe it is some sort of hormonal reaction, in that under stressful situations our body release some hormones to help us cope with the 'external danger'; however if the level of such hormones stays high for too long our immune system will start to deteriorate and this makes us more prone to illnesses.
So it is like alcohol. If it stays in your blood stream ALL THE TIME, you die of toxic.
It is akin to AIDS, which weakens your immunity and let other viruses kill you.
It is like some cancer. You can only try to manage it but not get rid of it completely.
Saturday, 11 July 2009
吃飽沒事做時看的：偉大的JF 原來有做這種Research。。。。。。
來看看神仙級的Actuary說了什麽：
Source:
Completion Rates of International Students Entering the Actuarial Program
by
Jim Farmer
“Students successfully completing the New South Wales (NSW) Higher School Certificate (HSC) are awarded a Universities Admission Index (UAI). The UAI is a number from 0 to 100 which ranks the student’s performance relative to all students in their year 10 cohort. Since not all year 10 students complete high school studies to the year 12 level, and those who don’t tend to be the less able students, the average UAI awarded is well above 50.”
哦。。。原來UAI是這麽一回事啊！Australians 怎麽那麽有創意會想到拿Year12來和Year10比？這種ranking方式我還是第一次聽到，不過也是有道理啦。
“To gain entry to an undergraduate degree program at Macquarie University a student must attain a UAI – or interstate equivalent – not less than the relevant “UAI cut-off” for that degree. Many degrees have two different UAI cut-offs: one for domestic (Australian) students who are predominantly funded by the government and a usually lower cut-off for international (non-Australian) students who are charged tuition fees.”
簡單來説所有的澳洲大學很寬待international students因爲他們繳付的學費比local students高非常非常多！現實一點吧，世界上有幾個人會和$鬥氣？人家也是要吃飯的。
“There has been discussion as to whether having a lower UAI cut-off for international students than for domestic students is appropriate. Some arguments on this issue assume that the international students who only satisfy the lower international student UAI cut-off are less likely to satisfactorily complete their degree than are the international students who also satisfy the higher domestic student cut-off. ”
我也很想知道啊.
總之result 就是有UAI 的international students，無論是達到domestic students cut-off （大約97分）抑或只是達到比較低的international students cut-off (大約93分），成功順利念完精算係的只有40-46%。
我怎麽覺得我這一年的international students 好像都很強叻？
這個research用的data 是1999-2001系列，可能當時學生也沒有現在多吧。
也有可能international students一年比一年聰明LOL.
Report中有提到的一點就是local Australians通常只有考或UAI 99以上才會報讀精算，而international students (可以先入爲主地當作都是亞洲人吧？）拿到96,97就已經一窩蜂地喊“我要念精算！！！” ----〉其實很對，亞洲人想賺大$的比較多吧！
後記：這篇blog絕對是本小姐假期空閒，自己寫自己爽，絕對沒有別的意思。
Source:
Completion Rates of International Students Entering the Actuarial Program
by
Jim Farmer
“Students successfully completing the New South Wales (NSW) Higher School Certificate (HSC) are awarded a Universities Admission Index (UAI). The UAI is a number from 0 to 100 which ranks the student’s performance relative to all students in their year 10 cohort. Since not all year 10 students complete high school studies to the year 12 level, and those who don’t tend to be the less able students, the average UAI awarded is well above 50.”
哦。。。原來UAI是這麽一回事啊！Australians 怎麽那麽有創意會想到拿Year12來和Year10比？這種ranking方式我還是第一次聽到，不過也是有道理啦。
“To gain entry to an undergraduate degree program at Macquarie University a student must attain a UAI – or interstate equivalent – not less than the relevant “UAI cut-off” for that degree. Many degrees have two different UAI cut-offs: one for domestic (Australian) students who are predominantly funded by the government and a usually lower cut-off for international (non-Australian) students who are charged tuition fees.”
簡單來説所有的澳洲大學很寬待international students因爲他們繳付的學費比local students高非常非常多！現實一點吧，世界上有幾個人會和$鬥氣？人家也是要吃飯的。
“There has been discussion as to whether having a lower UAI cut-off for international students than for domestic students is appropriate. Some arguments on this issue assume that the international students who only satisfy the lower international student UAI cut-off are less likely to satisfactorily complete their degree than are the international students who also satisfy the higher domestic student cut-off. ”
我也很想知道啊.
總之result 就是有UAI 的international students，無論是達到domestic students cut-off （大約97分）抑或只是達到比較低的international students cut-off (大約93分），成功順利念完精算係的只有40-46%。
我怎麽覺得我這一年的international students 好像都很強叻？
這個research用的data 是1999-2001系列，可能當時學生也沒有現在多吧。
也有可能international students一年比一年聰明LOL.
Report中有提到的一點就是local Australians通常只有考或UAI 99以上才會報讀精算，而international students (可以先入爲主地當作都是亞洲人吧？）拿到96,97就已經一窩蜂地喊“我要念精算！！！” ----〉其實很對，亞洲人想賺大$的比較多吧！
後記：這篇blog絕對是本小姐假期空閒，自己寫自己爽，絕對沒有別的意思。
Friday, 10 July 2009
Negaraku Malaysia I love thee~~~
A culture you won't find elsewhere.
For those who can't read Malay, it says "No hawkers are allowed in this area. Fine RM3000".
PS: Malaysians have a lot of humour don't we? Imagine you are driving past after a tiring day at work a good laugh is all you need and this kind stall owner provides just that!
Source: Forwarded email from Choy Yin
For those who can't read Malay, it says "No hawkers are allowed in this area. Fine RM3000".
PS: Malaysians have a lot of humour don't we? Imagine you are driving past after a tiring day at work a good laugh is all you need and this kind stall owner provides just that!Source: Forwarded email from Choy Yin
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