Friday 27 June 2008

It's been long since I last went to a cinema - The movie '21'



Went to watch this at macquarie centre cinema two days ago at night. It was a COLD COLD COLD night, I was shivering at all times when we were outdoor. Damnation. Also blame the fact that I only had a roll from KFC for dinner (of course I ate something when I reached home) before entering the theatre.

But, it was an awesome movie. Well, at least for us nerdy actuarial students. All of us were smiling when one scene showed Ben Campbell, the main character who was a smart ass, correctly answered the famous 'Monty Hall Problem' seemingly without any difficulty in comparison to what it was like for us when we encountered it in ACST211 last year. And for those who don't know what the Monty Hall Problem is:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Most people would think that it doesn't matter whether the door is switched as both are equally likely to contain the car.

The solution:

Don't switch: The probability of your door being the one with the car remains at 1/3

Switch:

If your door IS the one with the car, you lose. This probability is 1/3.

If your door IS NOT the one with the car, the host will open the other one without a car, you will subsequently switch to the remaining one which contains the car. This probability is 2/3 as there is 2 in 3 chance at the outset of you not choosing the correct door.

So by switching, you increase your chance of winning from 1/3 to 2/3. Amazing isn't it? This is counter intuitive for most people.

So this is the nerdy part about the movie which I think not many people in the theatre could understand. Anyway this smart ass impressed his fat round evil-faced professor Micky Rosa (oh I hate him!) Micky then persuaded him to join his Las Vegas blackjack team. The team spread out in playing small amount of money to count cards, and when it is statistically profitable they would signal the big player (Ben) to join the table and throw in big money. This part is certainly an exaggeration in the show. With card-counting one is expected to win money in the long-run but certainly not in every game as portrayed in the movie. Anyway I thought the sound effects when the game is played is quite thrilling.

'21' also serves as a gentle reminder to us about how money can be such a huge temptation for criminal activities. Easy but possibly illegal money could make "nothing seems to cost too much", and certainly make spending so much more delightful. I guess corporate crime in real life such as the all-so-common misappropriation of company funds, corruption all stem from the plain joy of spending big with money that comes without hard work. Not many could resist the glamour of being able to afford designer bags and clothing, expensive food at 5 star restaurants etc without having to earn those big bucks the legitimate way.

I will not be a spoiler by revealing all the interesting twist and turn of the storyline here. What's worth mentioning is the last part of the movie where Ben Campbell told his interviewer that throughout his life "he's been to Vegas 17 times, won a fortune two times, and it was stolen both times".

In order to make our money last, we have to work honestly for it. What comes easily goes easily.

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